Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Katrina results
Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics. These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.
The following table shows the maximum wind speeds for NWS ASOS locations as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations. All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.
| Location | State | Max Wind | Max Wind | Actual | Standard | AWE | Standard | AWE |
| Standard | AWE | Max | Method | Absolute | Pct | Pct | ||
| (knots) | (knots) | Wind | Error | Error | Error | Error | ||
| FCMP (T1) -Belle Chase * | LA | 118 | 73 | 68 | 50 | 5 | 73.53 | 7.35 |
| FCMP (T2) - Galliano * | LA | 107 | 77 | 67 | 40 | 10 | 59.70 | 14.93 |
| FCMP (T3) -Pascagoula * | MS | 84 | 64 | 64 | 20 | 0 | 31.25 | 0.00 |
| KSLI (TTU) - Slidell Airport ** | LA | 113 | 61 | 61 | 52 | 0 | 85.25 | 0.00 |
| Stennis Space Center (TTU) ** | MS | 113 | 61 | 59 | 54 | 2 | 91.53 | 3.39 |
| KBFM - Mobile | AL | 69 | 46 | 58 | 11 | 12 | 18.97 | 20.69 |
| KMOB - Mobile | AL | 73 | 45 | 57 | 16 | 12 | 28.07 | 21.05 |
| KFLL - Ft. Lauderdale | FL | 69 | 38 | 52 | 17 | 14 | 32.69 | 26.92 |
| KPNS - Pensacola | FL | 57 | 44 | 49 | 8 | 5 | 10.20 | 14.29 |
| KMIA - Miami | FL | 70 | 54 | 42 | 28 | 12 | 66.67 | 28.57 |
| KMCB - McComb | MS | 69 | 53 | 42 | 27 | 11 | 64.29 | 26.19 |
| KFXE - Ft. Lauderdale | FL | 57 | 38 | 41 | 16 | 3 | 39.02 | 7.32 |
| KOPF - Miami | FL | 70 | 54 | 39 | 31 | 15 | 79.49 | 38.46 |
| KBTR - Baton Rouge | LA | 51 | 26 | 39 | 12 | 13 | 30.77 | 33.33 |
| KGZH - Evergreen | AL | 54 | 29 | 32 | 22 | 3 | 68.75 | 9.38 |
| KMGM - Montgomery | AL | 42 | 30 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 35.48 | 3.23 |
| KBHM - Birmingham | AL | 37 | 21 | 31 | 6 | 10 | 19.35 | 32.26 |
| KCEW - Crestview | FL | 45 | 25 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 50.00 | 16.67 |
| KDTS - Destin | AL | 44 | 23 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 46.67 | 23.33 |
| 23.68 | 7.37 | 49.36 | 17.01 |
* FCMD station
** Texas Tech station
This
analysis of Katrina's actual max wind speed show an average error improvement
from 24 knots (using NHC raw interpolation) to 8 knots (using AWE).
The highlights of
this analysis are...
Comments:
19 observation points
Actual Wind speeds from 68 to 30 knots
Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 43%, Standard- 5%
Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 63%, Standard - 11%
Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 37%
Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 53%
Average Percent error, AWE - 17%, Standard - 49%