Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Charley results
Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics. These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.
The following table shows the maximum wind speeds for NWS ASOS locations as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations. All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.
|Location||State||Max Wind||Max Wind||Actual||Standard||AWE||Standard||AWE|
|KMCO - Orlando||FL||80||61||69||11||8||15.94||11.59|
|KDAB - Daytona||FL||75||54||48||27||6||56.25||12.50|
|KILM - Wilmington||NC||65||41||48||17||7||35.42||14.58|
|KFMY - Fort Myers||FL||66||45||43||23||2||53.49||4.65|
|KEWY - Key West||FL||48||46||42||6||4||14.29||9.52|
|KAPF - Naples||FL||59||33||38||21||5||55.26||13.16|
|KCRE - Myrtle Beach||SC||48||37||36||12||1||33.33||2.78|
|KMLB - Melbourne||FL||47||32||29||18||3||62.07||10.34|
|KCHS - Charleston||SC||42||32||25||17||7||68.00||28.00|
|KTPA - Tampa||FL||43||33||20||23||13||115.00||65.00|
analysis of Charley's actual max wind speed show an average error improvement
from 18 knots (using NHC raw interpolation) to 6 knots (using AWE).
The average percentage error went from 51% down to 17%. There were no
reports near the landfall point. The highlights of
this analysis are...
10 observation points Actual Wind speeds from 69 to 20 knots Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 50%, Standard- 0% Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 90%, Standard - 10% Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 30% Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 6-% Average Percent error, AWE - 17%, Standard - 51%
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