Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Frances results
Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics. These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.
The following table shows the maximum wind speeds for NWS ASOS locations as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations. All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.
| Location | State | Max Wind | Max Wind | Actual | Standard | AWE | Standard | AWE |
| Standard | AWE | Max | Method | Method | Pct | Pct | ||
| (knots) | (knots) | Wind | Error | Error | Error | Error | ||
| FPR - FCMP T3 * | FL | 90 | 86 | 72 | 18 | 14 | 25.0 | 19.4 |
| KPBI - West Palm Beach | FL | 76 | 65 | 56 | 20 | 9 | 35.7 | 16.1 |
| VRB - FCMP T2 * | FL | 90 | 59 | 50 | 40 | 9 | 80.0 | 18.0 |
| KDAB - Daytona | FL | 50 | 32 | 49 | 1 | 17 | 2.0 | 34.7 |
| KMCO - Orlando | FL | 65 | 51 | 47 | 18 | 4 | 38.3 | 8.5 |
| KSFB - Orlando | FL | 60 | 40 | 44 | 16 | 4 | 36.4 | 9.1 |
| KGNV - Gainesville | FL | 52 | 39 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 26.8 | 4.9 |
| KTLH - Tallahassee | FL | 52 | 31 | 41 | 11 | 10 | 26.8 | 24.4 |
| KPGD - Punta Gorda | FL | 55 | 42 | 40 | 15 | 2 | 37.5 | 5.0 |
| KTPA - Tampa | FL | 58 | 44 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 48.7 | 12.8 |
| KSPG - St. Pete | FL | 50 | 38 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 31.6 | 0.0 |
| KABY - Albany | GA | 39 | 22 | 38 | 1 | 16 | 2.6 | 42.1 |
| KPIE - St. Pete | FL | 50 | 38 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 31.6 | 0.0 |
| KJAX - Jacksonville | FL | 47 | 36 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 23.7 | 5.3 |
| KOPF - Miami | FL | 57 | 44 | 37 | 20 | 7 | 54.1 | 18.9 |
| KLEE - Leesburg | FL | 53 | 41 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 43.2 | 10.8 |
| KSSI - Brunswick | FL | 36 | 28 | 37 | 1 | 9 | 2.7 | 24.3 |
| KMIA - Miami | FL | 54 | 41 | 37 | 17 | 4 | 45.9 | 10.8 |
| KSRQ - Sarasota | FL | 49 | 37 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 36.1 | 2.8 |
| KFLL - Ft. Lauderdale | FL | 60 | 35 | 36 | 24 | 1 | 66.7 | 2.8 |
| KPFN - Panama City | FL | 40 | 25 | 36 | 4 | 11 | 11.1 | 30.6 |
| KAMG - Alma | GA | 38 | 21 | 35 | 3 | 14 | 8.6 | 40.0 |
| KBKV - Brooksville | FL | 55 | 33 | 33 | 22 | 0 | 66.7 | 0.0 |
| KFMY - Ft. Myers | FL | 54 | 33 | 32 | 22 | 1 | 68.8 | 3.1 |
| KDHN - Dothan | AL | 36 | 28 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| K40J - Perry-Foley | FL | 52 | 31 | 32 | 20 | 1 | 62.5 | 3.1 |
| KRSW - Ft. Myers | FL | 54 | 36 | 31 | 23 | 5 | 74.2 | 16.1 |
| KVLD - Valdosta | GA | 50 | 38 | 31 | 19 | 7 | 61.3 | 22.6 |
| KAAF - Apalachicola | FL | 45 | 26 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 45.2 | 16.1 |
| KCRG - Jacksonville | FL | 45 | 29 | 29 | 16 | 0 | 55.2 | 0.0 |
| KCTY - Cross City | FL | 53 | 31 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 89.3 | 10.7 |
| KMAI - Marianna | FL | 40 | 26 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 60.0 | 4.0 |
| KDTS - Destin | FL | 34 | 20 | 22 | 12 | 2 | 54.5 | 9.1 |
| 14.9 | 5.3 | 41.4 | 13.3 |
* FCMD station •
Comments: NE Florida (Daytona) has some heavy squally which delivered winds higher than the wind radii would normally justify.
33 observation points
Actual Wind speeds from 72 to 22 knots
Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 68%, Standard- 18%
Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 82%, Standard - 21%
Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 94%, Standard - 49%
Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 81%
Average Percent error, AWE - 13%, Standard - 41%
This table was compiled and is copyrighted © by PC Weather
Products, Inc., December, 2004
Any questions can be directed to George Sambataro (wx@pcwp.com)
** AWE = Advanced Wind Estimation
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Copyright ©2004 PC Weather Products, Inc., All Rights Reserved.