Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Rita results
Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics. These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.
The following table shows the maximum wind speeds for NWS ASOS locations as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations. All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.
| Location | State | Max Wind | Max Wind | Actual | Standard | AWE | Standard | AWE |
| Standard | AWE | Max | Method | Absolute | Pct | Pct | ||
| (knots) | (knots) | Wind | Error | Error | Error | Error | ||
| Port Arthur (FCMP) * | TX | 105 | 80 | 82 | 23 | 2 | 28.05 | 2.44 |
| Port Arthur (TTU) ** | LA | 105 | 80 | 81 | 24 | 1 | 29.63 | 1.23 |
| KBPT - Beaumont | TX | 105 | 80 | 70 | 35 | 10 | 50.00 | 14.29 |
| Lake Charles | LA | 89 | 61 | 66 | 23 | 5 | 34.85 | 7.58 |
| Orange (FCMP) * | LA | 105 | 62 | 65 | 40 | 3 | 61.54 | 4.62 |
| Nederland (FCMP) * | TX | 105 | 57 | 57 | 48 | 0 | 84.21 | 0.00 |
| KEYW - Key West | FL | 63 | 60 | 54 | 9 | 6 | 16.67 | 11.11 |
| KAEX - Alexandria | LA | 55 | 34 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 27.91 | 20.93 |
| KIAH - Houston | TX | 57 | 39 | 39 | 18 | 0 | 46.15 | 0.00 |
| KHOU - Houston | TX | 54 | 42 | 38 | 16 | 4 | 42.11 | 10.53 |
| KBTR - Baton Rouge | LA | 45 | 28 | 36 | 9 | 8 | 25.00 | 22.22 |
| KMTH - Marathon | FL | 47 | 32 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 30.56 | 11.11 |
| KARA - New Iberia | LA | 60 | 37 | 34 | 26 | 3 | 76.47 | 8.82 |
| KCXO - Conroe | TX | 59 | 41 | 33 | 26 | 8 | 78.79 | 24.24 |
| KLVJ - Houston | TX | 54 | 33 | 33 | 21 | 0 | 63.64 | 0.00 |
| KESF - Alexandria | LA | 51 | 36 | 31 | 20 | 5 | 64.52 | 16.13 |
| KUTS - Huntsville | TX | 55 | 36 | 30 | 25 | 6 | 83.33 | 20.00 |
| KMSY - New Orleans | LA | 38 | 21 | 30 | 8 | 9 | 26.67 | 30.00 |
| KLBX - Angleton | TX | 45 | 31 | 28 | 17 | 3 | 60.71 | 10.71 |
| KDWH - Houston | TX | 54 | 35 | 27 | 27 | 8 | 100.00 | 29.63 |
| 21.90 | 4.70 | 51.54 | 12.28 |
* FCMD station
** Texas Tech station
This
analysis of Rita's actual max wind speed show an average error improvement
from 22 knots (using NHC raw interpolation) to 5 knots (using AWE).
The highlights of
this analysis are...
Comments:
20 observation points
Actual Wind speeds from 82 to 27 knots
Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 60%, Standard- 0%
Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 15%
Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 25%
Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 45%
Average Percent error, AWE - 12%, Standard - 52%