Advanced location wind estimation (patent pending)

Advanced location wind estimation is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics. These characteristics include distance from open (ocean) exposures, types and density of vegetation and man made structures, and elevation being analyzed.

To define these parameters the user must enter information about the site into a form as shown below.

The system then considers all of these factors to adjust the “raw” derived wind speed (as determined by the NHC forecast advisory) for this site. Typically the adjusted wind speeds are considerable lower than the “raw” values. This function affects the forecast and actual location wind impact reports as well as the summary report.

To see how this can affect a location’s estimate winds, let’s review the following reports.

The first set of reports (for New Orleans) indicates the “raw” wind speed calculations. This does NOT take into consideration any local factors.

Summary Report (unadjusted)

Detailed Report for New Orleans (unadjusted)

The next set of reports utilizes the local factors that were defined above for New Orleans and adjust the wind speeds accordingly.

Summary Report (adjusted)

Detailed Report for New Orleans (adjusted)

Note that the estimated maximum wind speed for New Orleans drops from 112 knots to 70 knots. Also note that the pattern of the estimated wind speeds change also. For example the strong (unadjusted) easterly winds from 16:00 to 19:00 are much lower after being “location adjusted”. This is because these winds are not coming from an exposed (Lake Pontchartrain). When the winds shift to the North, the winds jump up significantly to 70 knots.