Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Isabel Preliminary results

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics.  These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.

The following table shows the maximum wind speeds for several location as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations (from the NHC Tropical Cyclone Report for Isabel).  All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.

Location State Max Wind  Max Wind

Actual 

 Standard AWE   Standard AWE
    Standard AWE Max Method Method   Pct  Pct
        Wind Error Error   Error Error
                   
Cape Hatteras NC 77 73 69 8 4   11.59 5.80
Roanoke Rapids NC 75 36 38 37 2   97.37 5.26
Atlantic Beach NC 74 69 55 19 14   34.55 25.45
Greenville NC 72 37 34 38 3   111.76 8.82
Elizabeth City NC 71 48 51 20 3   39.22 5.88
Manteo NC 69 44 44 25 0   56.82 0.00
Norfolk VA 67 48 46 21 2   45.65 4.35
Newport News VA 66 48 38 28 10   73.68 26.32
Rocky Mount NC 66 34 35 31 1   88.57 2.86
Hampton VA 66 61 58 8 3   13.79 5.17
Gloucester Point VA 65 62 60 5 2   8.33 3.33
Goldsboro NC 64 33 35 29 2   82.86 5.71
Richmond VA 64 33 33 31 0   93.94 0.00
Lewisetta VA 62 35 46 16 11   34.78 23.91
Quantico VA 57 47 41 16 6   39.02 14.63
Solomons VA 57 51 45 12 6   26.67 13.33
Andrews AFB VA 52 26 39 13 13   33.33 33.33
Washington DC DC 51 29 39 12 10   30.77 25.64
Cambridge MD 51 26 37 14 11   37.84 29.73
Wallops Island VA 50 48 43 7 5   16.28 11.63
Martinsburg VA 50 27 26 24 1   92.31 3.85
Baltimore MD 50 38 38 12 0   31.58 0.00
Hagerstown MD 50 28 34 16 6   47.06 17.65
Salisbury MD 50 29 32 18 3   56.25 9.38
Fayetteville SC 49 24 35 14 11   40.00 31.43
Ocean City MD 48 46 36 12 10   33.33 27.78
Elizabethtown NC 47 23 22 25 1   113.64 4.55
Delaware City DE 47 30 34 13 4   38.24 11.76
Cape May Point NJ 46 30 34 12 4   35.29 11.76
Lumberton NC 45 23 32 13 9   40.63 28.13
Newark NJ 39 23 28 11 5   39.29 17.86
Farmingdale NY 36 16 28 8 12   28.57 42.86
Islip NY 35 17 27 8 10   29.63 37.04
                   
          17.45 5.58   48.56 15.01
 

•This analysis of Isabel’s actual max wind speed show an average error improvement from 17 knots (using NHC raw interpolation) to 5 knots (using AWE).  Biggest improvement was for inland locations.  The highlights of this analysis are... 

- •33 observation points
- •Actual Wind speeds from 69 to 22 knots
- •Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 58%, Standard- 3%
- •Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 82%, Standard - 18%
- •Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 52%
- •Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 70%
- •Average Percent error, AWE - 15%, Standard - 48%

More analysis of this type will be done as time permits

 

**  •We did not have the reporting station’s precise location at the time of this analysis.
 

 

 

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