Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Jeanne results

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics.  These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.

The following table shows the maximum wind speeds for NWS ASOS locations as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations.  All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.

Location State Max Wind  Max Wind Actual  Standard AWE Standard AWE
    Standard AWE Max Method Method Pct  Pct
    (knots) (knots) Wind Error Error Error Error
                 
Sebastian Wx * FL 86 80 74 12 6 16.22 8.11
VRB - Vero Beach * FL 95 80 72 23 8 31.94 11.11
KMCO - Orlando FL 66 59 53 13 6 24.53 11.32
KSFB - Orlando FL 61 41 46 15 5 32.61 10.87
KDAB - Daytona FL 53 33 45 8 12 17.78 26.67
KSRQ - Sarasota FL 63 48 44 19 4 43.18 9.09
KPIE - St. Pete FL 64 47 43 21 4 48.84 9.30
KPMP - Pompano FL 63 39 40 23 1 57.50 2.50
KJAX - Jacksonville FL 48 37 40 8 3 20.00 7.50
KCTY - Cross City FL 51 38 39 12 1 30.77 2.56
KGNV - Gainesville FL 51 36 38 13 2 34.21 5.26
KTPA - Tampa FL 65 50 37 28 13 75.68 35.14
KCRG - Jacksonville FL 48 31 37 11 6 29.73 16.22
KFMY - Ft. Myers FL 51 31 36 15 5 41.67 13.89
KFXE - Ft. Lauderdale FL 62 42 35 27 7 77.14 20.00
KVLD - Valdosta GA 47 36 34 13 2 38.24 5.88
KSPG - St. Pete FL 64 49 33 31 16 93.94 48.48
TJSJ - San Juan PR 50 33 33 17 0 51.52 0.00
KRSW - Ft. Myers FL 50 38 31 19 7 61.29 22.58
KTLH -  Tallahassee FL 43 25 29 14 4 48.28 13.79
KSAV - Savannah GA 35 24 29 6 5 20.69 17.24
KSSI - Brunswick GA 40 31 28 12 3 42.86 10.71
KMCN - Macon GA 35 27 28 7 1 25.00 3.57
KOPF - Miami FL 52 40 27 25 13 92.59 48.15
KAMG - Alma GA 40 23 26 14 3 53.85 11.54
KMIA - Miami FL 49 37 23 26 14 113.04 60.87
KABY - Albany GA 37 21 22 15 1 68.18 4.55
KAAF - Apalachicola FL 36 22 22 14 0 63.64 0.00
KDNL - Augusta GA 34 23 22 12 1 54.55 4.55
KMAI - Marianna FL 35 22 20 15 2 75.00 10.00
KAGS - Augusta GA 34 20 17 17 3 100.00 17.65
KTOI - Troy AL 35 23 16 19 7 118.75 43.75
                 
          16.38 5.16 53.22 16.03
 

* FCMD station •

This analysis of Jeanne's actual max wind speed show an average error improvement from 16 knots (using NHC raw interpolation) to 5 knots (using AWE).  The average percentage error went from 53% down to 16%.  The highlights of this analysis are... 

32 observation points
Actual Wind speeds from 74 to 16 knots										
Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 63%, Standard- 0%										
Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 84%, Standard - 13%
Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 97%, Standard - 60%
Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 73%
Average Percent error, AWE - 16%, Standard - 53%