Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Wilma results

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics.  These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.

The following table shows the maximum wind speeds for NWS ASOS locations as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations.  All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.

Location State Max Wind  Max Wind Actual  Standard AWE Standard AWE
    Standard AWE Max Method Method Pct  Pct
    (knots) (knots) Wind Error Error Error Error
                 
L006 - Lake OKE ** FL 102 100 80 22 20 27.50 25.00
FCMD T1 - Weston * FL 106 77 77 29 0 37.66 0.00
KPBI - West Palm beach FL 100 72 71 29 1 40.85 1.41
VAKF1 - Virginia Key FL 103 70 65 38 5 58.46 7.69
FCMD T2 - Ochoppi * FL 108 66 64 44 2 68.75 3.13
FCMD T0 - 25.9 81.3 * FL 108 63 63 45 0 71.43 0.00
KEYW - Key West FL 95 71 62 33 9 53.23 14.52
FCMD - FIU (T3) * FL 105 55 62 43 7 69.35 11.29
KFLL - Ft. Lauderdale FL 103 72 61 42 11 68.85 18.03
KMIA - Miami FL 105 80 58 47 22 81.03 37.93
KFMY - Ft. Myers FL 109 83 54 55 29 101.85 53.70
KRSW - Ft. Myers FL 109 80 54 55 26 101.85 48.15
KPGD - Punta Gorda FL 63 48 45 18 3 40.00 6.67
KMLB- Melbourne FL 56 43 42 14 1 33.33 2.38
KMCO - Orlando FL 44 34 35 9 1 25.71 2.86
KPIE - St. Pete. FL 42 30 33 9 3 27.27 9.09
KSPG - St. Pete FL 44 34 32 12 2 37.50 6.25
KSRQ - Sarasota FL 49 31 31 18 0 58.06 0.00
KGIF - Winter Haven FL 46 35 31 15 4 48.39 12.90
KORL - Orlando FL 43 31 30 13 1 43.33 3.33
KTPA - Tampa FL 42 31 30 12 1 40.00 3.33
KLEE - Leesburg FL 36 27 28 8 1 28.57 3.57
KBKV - Brooksville FL 37 24 25 12 1 48.00 4.00
KDAB - Daytona FL 40 30 25 15 5 60.00 20.00
                 
          26.54 6.46 52.96 12.30
 

 * FCMD station

** SFWWD station

This analysis of Wilma's actual max wind speed show an average error improvement from 27 knots (using NHC raw interpolation) to 6 knots (using AWE).   The highlights of this analysis are... 

24 observation points
Actual Wind speeds from 80 to 25 knots 
Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 74%, Standard- 0% 
Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 78%, Standard - 13% 
Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 83%, Standard - 57% 
Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 87%, Standard - 48%
 
Average Percent error AWE -12%, Standard - 53%