Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Wilma results
Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics. These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.
The following table shows the maximum wind speeds for NWS ASOS locations as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations. All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.
Location | State | Max Wind | Max Wind | Actual | Standard | AWE | Standard | AWE |
Standard | AWE | Max | Method | Method | Pct | Pct | ||
(knots) | (knots) | Wind | Error | Error | Error | Error | ||
L006 - Lake OKE ** | FL | 102 | 100 | 80 | 22 | 20 | 27.50 | 25.00 |
FCMD T1 - Weston * | FL | 106 | 77 | 77 | 29 | 0 | 37.66 | 0.00 |
KPBI - West Palm beach | FL | 100 | 72 | 71 | 29 | 1 | 40.85 | 1.41 |
VAKF1 - Virginia Key | FL | 103 | 70 | 65 | 38 | 5 | 58.46 | 7.69 |
FCMD T2 - Ochoppi * | FL | 108 | 66 | 64 | 44 | 2 | 68.75 | 3.13 |
FCMD T0 - 25.9 81.3 * | FL | 108 | 63 | 63 | 45 | 0 | 71.43 | 0.00 |
KEYW - Key West | FL | 95 | 71 | 62 | 33 | 9 | 53.23 | 14.52 |
FCMD - FIU (T3) * | FL | 105 | 55 | 62 | 43 | 7 | 69.35 | 11.29 |
KFLL - Ft. Lauderdale | FL | 103 | 72 | 61 | 42 | 11 | 68.85 | 18.03 |
KMIA - Miami | FL | 105 | 80 | 58 | 47 | 22 | 81.03 | 37.93 |
KFMY - Ft. Myers | FL | 109 | 83 | 54 | 55 | 29 | 101.85 | 53.70 |
KRSW - Ft. Myers | FL | 109 | 80 | 54 | 55 | 26 | 101.85 | 48.15 |
KPGD - Punta Gorda | FL | 63 | 48 | 45 | 18 | 3 | 40.00 | 6.67 |
KMLB- Melbourne | FL | 56 | 43 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 33.33 | 2.38 |
KMCO - Orlando | FL | 44 | 34 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 25.71 | 2.86 |
KPIE - St. Pete. | FL | 42 | 30 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 27.27 | 9.09 |
KSPG - St. Pete | FL | 44 | 34 | 32 | 12 | 2 | 37.50 | 6.25 |
KSRQ - Sarasota | FL | 49 | 31 | 31 | 18 | 0 | 58.06 | 0.00 |
KGIF - Winter Haven | FL | 46 | 35 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 48.39 | 12.90 |
KORL - Orlando | FL | 43 | 31 | 30 | 13 | 1 | 43.33 | 3.33 |
KTPA - Tampa | FL | 42 | 31 | 30 | 12 | 1 | 40.00 | 3.33 |
KLEE - Leesburg | FL | 36 | 27 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 28.57 | 3.57 |
KBKV - Brooksville | FL | 37 | 24 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 48.00 | 4.00 |
KDAB - Daytona | FL | 40 | 30 | 25 | 15 | 5 | 60.00 | 20.00 |
26.54 | 6.46 | 52.96 | 12.30 |
** SFWWD station
This
analysis of Wilma's actual max wind speed show an average error improvement
from 27 knots (using NHC raw interpolation) to 6 knots (using AWE).
The highlights of
this analysis are...
24 observation points
Actual Wind speeds from 80 to 25 knots
Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 74%, Standard- 0%
Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 78%, Standard - 13%
Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 83%, Standard - 57%
Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 87%, Standard - 48%
Average Percent error AWE -12%,
Standard - 53%