Advanced Location Wind Estimates

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics. These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.

The following table shows the maximum wind speeds for NWS ASOS locations as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations. All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.

Location	State	Max Wind	Max Wind	Actual	Standard	AWE	Standard	AWE
		Standard	AWE	Max	Method	Method	Pct	Pct
		(knots)	(knots)	Wind	Error	Error	Error	Error

KMCO - Orlando	FL	80	61	69	11	8	15.94	11.59
KDAB - Daytona	FL	75	54	48	27	6	56.25	12.50
KILM - Wilmington	NC	65	41	48	17	7	35.42	14.58
KFMY - Fort Myers	FL	66	45	43	23	2	53.49	4.65
KEWY - Key West	FL	48	46	42	6	4	14.29	9.52
KAPF - Naples	FL	59	33	38	21	5	55.26	13.16
KCRE - Myrtle Beach	SC	48	37	36	12	1	33.33	2.78
KMLB - Melbourne	FL	47	32	29	18	3	62.07	10.34
KCHS - Charleston	SC	42	32	25	17	7	68.00	28.00
KTPA - Tampa	FL	43	33	20	23	13	115.00	65.00

					17.50	5.60	50.90	17.21

This analysis of Charley's actual max wind speed show an average error improvement from 18 knots (using NHC raw interpolation) to 6 knots (using AWE). The average percentage error went from 51% down to 17%. There were no reports near the landfall point. The highlights of this analysis are...

10 observation points
Actual Wind speeds from 69 to 20 knots										
Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 50%, Standard- 0%										
Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 90%, Standard - 10%
Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 30%
Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 6-%
Average Percent error, AWE - 17%, Standard - 51%