Advanced Location Wind Estimates

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (patent pending)

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics. These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.

The original AWE introduced in 2003 required that the user enter detailed information about a locations characteristics. This included the characteristics of the area as well as distance from the coastline in 8 different quadrants, etc. While this provided a valid method of adjusting
the forecast winds down to more accurate levels, it required a considerable amount of detailed analysis and data entry.

The new Enhanced AWE has 3 important changes over the original method.

1. Via the use of the USGS NLCD, the system will estimate the characteristics of the "locations" (US only) being analyzed. i.e. the user does not have to evaluate and enter information on every site.

2. We have expanded the AWE analysis to Counties and Zip Codes. While there are important considerations when doing area averages, it satisfies a key requirement.

3. Mousepointer and wind arrows now reflect the AWE estimated winds. See Sample Image.

How do we do this? The NLCD database has land usage information on every state. An example of the land usage graphic for part of S. Florida is shown below. It shows the urban land usage of the Florida east coast as well as the Everglades and Crop areas. With his information we can estimate the "roughness index" (friction) for any location by direction of wind. i.e. an East wind into Palm Beach has a different "roughness index" than a west wind.

The system then considers these factors to adjust the “raw” derived wind speed (as determined by the NHC forecast advisory) for this site. Typically the adjusted wind speeds are considerable lower than the “raw” values. This function affects the forecast and actual location wind impact reports as well as the summary report.

Forecast Location Impact report (no AWE)

Forecast Location Impact report after AWE is applied. Note the large differences, especially with inland locations.

AWE also impacts the detailed hourly reports.

Remember: County and zip code reports are also supported.

To view a preliminary report of how AWE performed, based actual storms, click on the link below.

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Isabel 2003 Final report

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Charley 2004 Final report

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Frances 2004 Final report

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Ivan 2004 Final report

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Jeanne 2004 Final report

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Katrina 2005 Final report

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Rita 2005 Final report

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Wilma 2005 Final report

Sample Wind Flow Image with Advanced Wind estimation